The End of the QQQ Thrill?
The narrative surrounding the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) has shifted from unbridled optimism to caution. After six months of flat returns, the "GOAT" of modern stock market investing is facing a critical test. While segments of the tech sector have outperformed this conglomerate index, QQQ's stagnation signals more than just a pause; it suggests a fundamental shift in how the artificial intelligence (AI) boom is being priced.
From Voting Machine to Weighing Machine
Market dynamics are currently behaving as Benjamin Graham famously described: "In the short run, the market is a voting machine; in the long run, a weighing machine." For now, QQQ remains trapped in the voting phase. The index has seen significant volatility over the last half-year with no net gain, masking a deeper issue.
The core problem lies in the timeline of AI adoption. If the market anticipated leading AI stocks to double their value over four years but achieved that doubling in just two, "the proverbial dog has caught the car." The risk is now one of disappointment as the market transitions from pricing in potential to demanding immediate proof of returns.
The 2000 Parallel and Capital Expenditures
The current landscape bears a striking resemblance to the year 2000, though not identical. While hyperscalers are aggressively doubling down with more than $520 billion in AI-related capital expenditures for 2026, the broader market is questioning the immediate return on this investment.
Infrastructure build-outs remain robust, but the application layer—software and services designed to monetize these chips—is struggling to demonstrate a clear path to profit. This divergence creates a structural stalemate where investors have borrowed future growth to justify current prices. For younger investors with more time, the outlook may still be bullish; for older generations, the strategy implies lower position weights.
Technical Analysis: The ROAR Score and Key Levels
Rob Isbitts' ROAR score, a technical indicator based on 40+ years of experience, currently sits at 20. This reading indicates solid higher-than-normal risk. The last time the score signaled lower-than-normal risk (70 or higher) was on Nov. 10, 2025, when QQQ traded at $623.
Since that green signal four months ago, the index has waffled between average and high-risk zones. Isbitts outlines specific technical thresholds for the coming weeks:
- Bullish Confirmation: To invalidate a topping process, QQQ must not only cross the $637 level but comfortably exceed it. A move above $650 (approximately 2% above the late January all-time high) would be required to signal a true revival.
- Bearish Warning: The immediate downside focus is on $580, the Thanksgiving-week low. A break below this level could quickly expose rally liftoff points from last summer in the $550 to $560 range.
Conclusion: Managing Risk Over Guessing
The current flat return of QQQ is not a sign of stability but rather evidence that the thrill has vanished. As Isbitts notes, "A trend remains in place until it doesn't. For now, QQQ is trendless." Until fundamentals catch up to hype or a clear panic-stricken environment emerges, the prudent path is to manage risk tightly and prioritize investment process over market guessing.
*Disclaimer: On the date of publication, Rob Isbitts did not have positions in any securities mentioned. This article was originally published on Barchart.com.*
Original source
Is the Thrill Gone in QQQ? Where Investors Should Be Looking Now.
Published: Mar 18, 2026
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